Oscar Winner Predictions

Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Capote"

Best Supporting Actor: Paul Giamatti in “Cinderella Man"

Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon in “Walk the Line"

Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams in “Brokeback Mountain"

Best Animated Feature Film: "Howl’s Moving Castle"

Art Direction: "Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire" (Warner Bros) Art Direction:Stuart Craig(yes!)

Cinematography: "Memoirs of a Geisha", Dion Beebe

Best Director: "Brokeback Mountain” (Focus Features) Ang Lee

Best Documentary: "March of the Penguins” (Warner Independent Pictures)

Best Motion Picture: “Brokeback Mountain” (Focus Features) Diana Ossana and James Schamus, Producers

Best Visual Effects: “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” (Buena Vista)Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney and Scott Farrar

Adapted Screenplay: “A History of Violence” (New Line) Screenplay by Josh Olson

Original Screenplay: "Crash” (Lions Gate)Screenplay by Paul Haggis & Bobby MorescoStory by Paul Haggis

Nominated film that will ensure further television audience decline this year: "Paradise? No!"

Blaming Buffy

An intelligent girl actually bought the LA Times yesterday - "we're buying a car! I wanted to see the used car prices!" and found an interesting article about the demise of UPN and the WB network stations.

"When the obituary is written of the WB network, the cause of death should probably read: complications resulting from Buffy the Vampire Slayer."

"Last week, when the money-losing WB and UPN networks announced that they were pulling the plug to form a single new broadcast network, many television veterans traced the roots of the decision back five years, when a fight over the fate of "Buffy" drove what would prove to be a fatal stake through the WB's heart."

"The show, produced by 20th Century Fox Television, was a runaway hit with teenage girls. But in early 2001, the WB balked when Fox executives demanded $44 million to license a single season. That fall, the show shifted to UPN, and with it went the WB's identity as the go-to destination for young viewers."

"As it grew, the WB consistently marketed itself as a youth-oriented network and gained traction with such signature dramas as "Dawson's Creek," "7th Heaven" and "Buffy"."

"...to save the ailing network came in 2001, when UPN agreed to pay about $50 million a season for the rights to "Buffy," $10 million more than the WB had offered to keep the show."

"...Buffy" didn't sustain the high ratings on UPN that it had enjoyed on the WB...during their 11 years, UPN lost more than $1 billion and the WB lost about $700 million."

Buffy had five glorious years on the WB, two rather patchy years on UPN. I miss her.

One Brave Voice

Norm's got a post about a lady MP in Afghanistan. She sounds feisty and idealistic.

Some edited highlights from the BBC News article:

"Malalai Joya...27-year-old MP is the most famous woman in Afghanistan."

"She has made her name as a woman's rights activist who has attacked Afghanistan's most powerful institution, the Mujahideen."

"On 20 December, the day of the parliament's first session in more than 30 years, she did what many of her friends feared she would."

"Rising from her seat she launched into a denunciation of many of those seated around her, condemning the presence in the parliament of "criminal warlords" whose hands are stained with the blood of the people". "

"Many MPs beat their fists on their desks and furiously shouted her down. "

"As she left the parliament she received death threats."

"The threat against her life is very real," said Ms Pekai. "All the rumours in the parliament are that people are preparing to kill her."

"Every democrat must be ready to die for truth and freedom," said Ms Joya.

"I am not better than any of the others, but I am young and energetic and the women of Afghanistan need me."

Fraud with Numbers

Numbers flummox some, confuse others. I don't know why. Numbers are our friends - if you know me you've heard me say that a hundred times.

What you always need to do is look at the original source data. Then you play around with it, changing axes, imagining it as a recipe - for a cake or scrambled eggs - whatever you make at your house.

If it's market research data think about who asked the question and exactly how the question was phrased. Rarely is a question as non-controversial as "Do you like ketchup with your chips?"

Here's a really good example of how old media obfuscates with numbers. There are zillions of examples every day. Don't fall for it.

Don't Get Distracted

January 24th just happened to be the day that Geol Stein wrote an offensive op-ed piece in the LA Times.

The LA Times is owned by the Tribune Company.

The Tribune Company is a 22.5% shareholder in the WB television network.

On January 24th it was announced in the business news that CBS and Time Warner are closing down two well known but struggling television networks, UPN and - well hey! - WB. A new network will be launched called CW.

The Tribune Company "won't have any ownership stake in the new outlet".

You know me and numbers---

Tribune Company stock prices January 2006

Jan 19 2006 30.82
Jan 20 2006 30.05
Jan 23 2006 29.90
Jan 24 2006 29.65 Yoel's op-ed piece in LA Times also closing of WB
Jan 25 2006 29.45
Jan 26 2006 29.10
Jan 27 2006 29.54

I'm looking forward to the stock market prices next week!

Historic Tribune Company stock prices

Feb 07 2000 37.25 - A time of recession
Feb 12 2001 38.32

Sep 10 2001 30.51 - The day before
Sep 24 2001 29.80

Feb 11 2002 39.50
Feb 10 2003 43.59
Feb 09 2004 50.45

Hypothesis - Right wing blogging in election year has wide ranging impact

Jan 28 2005 38.86
Jan 27 2006 29.54

Bottom line - sell don't buy

Market Opportunity

I know tons of people who live in Los Angeles but I'm racking my brain trying to remember if any of them subscribe to the LA Times. I know everyone did a few years ago, but you don't need it for business - Investor's Daily is delivered to home addresses in LA every weekday and you don't need it for news with the internet providing up to the second information

You don't need it for op-eds because Andres Martinez is the kind of editor who allows someone as thick as Joel Stein to write about something he has gone on record saying he knows nothing about.

From Hugh Hewitt's interview with this guy:

As I suspected, Mr. Stein really doesn't know anyone on active duty, hasn't been to any bases or any of the service academies, hasn't met with wounded or returning troops, and generally admits to being blissfully ignorant of the military. He could not recount a single book he has read about the military, and doesn't even know how big it is. He thinks the soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines who have died in the GWOT have died in vain. He does not feel grateful for their service.

I'll make a prediction - Goel Stien is not going to make his fortune as a writer.

So why would anyone read the LA Times?

You know - the Calendar section.

What a market opportunity.

Just on the off chance that anyone is still subscribing --

To cancel your subscription, call: 1-888-565-2323. (Back-up cancellation number: 310-608-0111.)

Hugh Hewitt's got a great post on the subject.

Update:

OK, OK, sports and property. That makes it MORE of a market opportunity. Don't have to employ any pesky "news reporters" - think of the savings.

Thank you Adrian

I live in a bubble, safe and secure, surrounded by like minded people.

I have never met anyone who used heroin. Who does buy the stuff? It's got a terrible image.

Thanks for pointing out my misuse of a noun and for saying "what you meant to say was opium". You're right!

Basra

What? Some of the police in Basra are corrupt? Why is it a new concept to have a police force that is loyal, disciplined and trustworthy? And don't get me started on Sharia law.

The British have their own history in Ireland. Peter Hart's first chapter in "The IRA at War 1916-1923 offers these key lessons:

- violence and corruption are more than just a straightforward matter of strategy and tactics
- think in terms of an ethnic power struggle...a many-sided struggle
- geographical distinctions can be misleading
- focus on relationships
- at least two distinct blocs will make incompatible claims over the control of the state
- the outcome entails a definitive transfer of power
- mobilize the public and support a public counter response to corruption and violence, ie encourage wide spread popular support for anti corruption measures
- analyse the elites to determine why they are alienated or divided
- recruit women - they are a huge new source of organizational energy
- electoral democracy is vital
- the corruption in the police force is based on objectives, determine what is achieved from it
- violence is coercive and traumatic and subverts rational decision-making and political choice - a little psychological insight there!

But if there is only one objective that can be comprehensively achieved, it should be - follow the money. That's why the ruthless and clever Michael Collins was made Minister for Finance during the period in question. I'd start with their city governor.

Lucky Girl

Today Norm posted a profile of me. This is both humbling and daunting, not least because of the incredible list of people he's already profiled. My warmest thanks go out to him. He's kind, funny and sexy as well as being a stupendous force for good in the blogosphere.

I Married Isis

Norm's meme, one from three:

1. Beatles, Stones or Beach Boys? Beatles

2. Kant, Hegel, Marx? Kant

3. Cluedo, Monopoly, Scrabble? Clue

4. Paul Newman, Jack Nicholson, Robert Redford? Paul Newman

5. Bach, Beethoven, Mozart? Mozart

6. Australia, Canada, New Zealand? Australia

7. Groucho, Chico, Harpo? Groucho

8. Morning, afternoon, evening? Evening

9. Bridge, Canasta, Poker? Bridge

10. Fargo, The Big Lebowski, O Brother, Where Art Thou? O Brother, Where Art Thou? (Miller's Crossing!)

11. Hobbes, Locke, Rousseau? Locke

12. Cricket, football, rugby? Rugby

3. Jane Austen, Charlotte Bronte, Emily Bronte? Jane Austen

14. Parker, Gillespie, Monk? Monk

15. Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham? Chelsea

16. Cheers, Friends, Seinfeld? Seinfeld

17. Henry Fonda, Cary Grant, Jimmy Stewart? Jimmy Stewart

18. France, Germany, Italy? Germany

19. Apple, orange, banana? Apple

20. Statham, Tyson, Trueman? Tyson

21. Rio Bravo, El Dorado, Rio Lobo? Rio Bravo

22. Katharine Hepburn, Meryl Streep, Ingrid Bergman? Ingrid

23. Chinese, Indian, Thai? Indian

24. Handel, Scarlatti, Vivaldi? Vivaldi

25. Oasis, Radiohead, Blur? Oasis

26. Fawlty Towers, The Young Ones, Yes Minister? Fawlty Towers

27. Chekhov, Ibsen, Shaw? Shaw

28. American football, baseball, basketball? American football

29. FDR, JFK, Bill Clinton? FDR

30. Lenin, Luxemburg, Trotsky? Luxemburg

31. Paris, Rome, New York? New York

32. Fitzgerald, Hemingway, Steinbeck? Hemingway

33. Blue, green, red? Blue

34. Guys and Dolls, My Fair Lady, West Side Story? Guys and Dolls

35. J.S. Mill, John Rawls, Robert Nozick? John Rawls

36. Armstrong, Ellington, Goodman? Armstrong

37. Ireland, Scotland, Wales (at rugby)? Ireland

38. The Sopranos, 24, Six Feet Under? The Sopranos

39. Friday, Saturday, Sunday? Sunday

40. Hamlet, Macbeth, King Lear? Hamlet

41. Fried, boiled, scrambled (eggs)? Fried

42. Paths of Glory, Cross of Iron, Saving Private Ryan? Saving Private Ryan

43. England, Australia, West Indies (at cricket)? England

44. Chabrol, Godard, Truffaut? Truffaut

45. Bringing It All Back Home, Blonde on Blonde, Blood on the Tracks? Blood on the Tracks

.46. Trains, planes, automobiles? Planes

47. North By Northwest, Psycho, Vertigo? Vertigo

48. Third, Fourth, Fifth (Beethoven Piano Concerto)? Fifth

49. Coffee, tea, chocolate? Coffee

50. Cardiff, Edinburgh, Dublin? Dublin's Fair City

Musings on Iran

Norm found this website:

"A Description of Omid - The men and women whose stories you can read on this page are now all citizens of a silent city named Omid ("hope" in Persian). There, victims of persecution have found a common life whose substance is memory."

Iran shut down the BBC news website - BBCPersian.com - published in Farsi. All those news stories just need to be transferred to a new site. TeddyBearsAreCute.com. Or something.

The internet will change the world.

New York Times Stock Price

The NYTimes ran a mislabelled photo and is clear about why they aren't negligent.

And no, the photo wasn't something charming and dear like the whale in the Thames in London.

And yes, the bad guys were the US Army.

What can their stock price be these days?

It was 27.52 on 13 January. The fake photo appeared 14 January. The stock price for the end of the week, 20 January was 26.71. The value dropped 3% in a week.

January 21 2004 47.37
January 21 2005 39.45
January 20 2006 26.71

That's a drop of 44% in two years.

Thank You Driver play the Blag Club

"Cilla and Lucy have been writing some new tunes, and would like to play them to you."

"They will be playing on Wednesday the 8th February at the Blag Club, 68 Notting Hill Gate. It's a princely 3 quid in. No need for a map cos it's approx 3 seconds walk from the tube. The night starts at 8. Please let us know if you're coming by replying to us - they like to plan. Best,Lucy and Cilla"

The link's over there on the right.

You have a lure I can't deny

Dr. Sanity has an extremely timely article about paranoia. Everyone in the comments section is keen for the next post that outlines "treatment". She hints at the problem in the article:

"Paranoia can be conceptualized as "rationality in the service of the irrational." Once fixed on a particular idea or explanation -- no matter how bizarre or irrational; the paranoid person looks for evidence to validate their prejudices. It is almost impossible to change their minds. Their entire concept of themselves is tied up with the paranoid idea or conspiracy. If it did not exist, or was proven to be untrue or false-- then they would need to question their underlying assumptions and ideas--and those are what usually form the foundation of who they believe themselves to be."

Found this story at crackunit.

"The Postal Service vs Apple"

"I like the The Postal Service a lot. Their album is great. I also like Apple a lot. Their products are great. As has been well documented the latest Apple Intel Ad looks a lot like the video for “Such Great Heights” by the aforementioned band. Ben from The Postal Service expresses his disappointment on their site. But, in a sweet twist of irony the video ends up topping the iTunes video chart."

"Shows the power of a bit of controversy online. The digital equivalent of kids standing round a schoolyard fight. “Scrap! scrap! scrap!”."

From Postal Service's website:

01/19/06
A Note from Ben
It has recently come to our attention that Apple Computers' new television commercial for the Intel chip features a shot-for-shot recreation of our video for 'Such Great Heights' made by the same filmmakers responsible for the original. We did not approve this commercialization and are extremely disappointed with both parties that this was executed without our consultation or consent. -Ben Gibbard, The Postal Service

There is another term for a shot-for-shot recreation of a piece of creative work...

More Humour Please

There's a lot to be happy about, but in January it seems harder to remember that.

Here is a web article about how the brain processes humour, including this paragraph:

"Already some small studies hint that the brain activity from humor may have a medical benefit. For example, human tests have found some evidence that humorous videos and tapes can reduce feelings of pain, prevent negative stress reactions and boost the brain's biological battle against infection. Studies continuing this work are underway."

I've read that it's likely that hormones are activated. You can increase the amount of immune system boosting hormones in your body just by looking at a photograph of someone you love. Spontaneous laughter does the same thing.

So here are some things I hope make you laugh:

Dr. Sanity has listed the links to a number of song parodies she's written.

My favourite is the one about Juan Cole, 'I'm on the Faculty" to the tune of Monty Python's "I'm a lumberjack" - combining two interests of mine, my old university and my first exposure to 'British culture'. I still remember the shock of finding out there really WAS a Thames Ditton. I thought Monty Python had made it up. Can't stop singing "I think all night and I sleep all day".

A bit harsher perhaps with let's-call-it-colourful language, but really funny for all that, is Iowahawk. There are some great posts "written by Iowahawk Guest - Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi Senior VP, Al-Qaeda In Iraq", like this one,

"We've got a little joke here at the office": What's the last thing a Saudi says to a Syrian before they meet Allah?"
"What does this button do?"

Or this one, about a motivational meeting:

"Then, I swear to Allah, 58 drilldown slides of this crap. Lucky I was at the back of the room with Minesweeper on my laptop, otherwise I would have volunteered for my own martyrdom operation just to end the misery."

But for me the best is this, with the guest commentator live blogging the last election in Iraq:

"Okay, I admit the donkey martyr thing didn't go so hot."

"The whole thing was such a buzzkill I decided to go home for lunch. My sons were all off at madrassa and the only wife at home was the fat one, Fatima, who was watching the stupid non-son shorties who all need expensive hijjabs and farkin' dowries. Anyway I think I kind of freaked Fatima out, she said something about the other wives "doing errands."

Maybe I read it too fast, but Michael Yon's latest post makes him sound like a secret agent. His childhood memoir, 'Danger Close' has a lot of laughs in between the heartwrenching and exciting stuff, including a story about his grandmother's war against the moles in her front garden:
"Granny decreed that the moles were unwelcome and had to go. Dead or alive...catching them merely to relocate them would be like catching, then transplanting, cupboard mice. Such an exercise is neither socially demanded, nor worth the effort - unless you were the mole or the mouse." p.284-287

But it's PJ, economist, philosopher and cynic, who I've chosen to end with:

"The fighting in Afghanistan was so brief that CNN Headline News had to delete three bars from its "Target: Terror" score to keep the theme music from outlasting the hostilities."
p. 75 PJ O'Rourke, Peace Kills

Update:

Great cow jokes.

Wait, it's another update!

Judge Judy takes on Dan Rather, an oldie but goodie (12 months ago in the blogoshere IS a long time).

Blog TV

www.cynopsis.com

Reporting on the NATPE convention in Las Vegas, has this item about a tv pilot that's being developed by Fox:

"The 12th Man, inspired by Paul Shirley's blog on ESPN.com called My So-Called NBA Career in which he writes about being the pro ball player who never really gets off the bench. The project is from 20th."

Sex and the City made typing away on your laptop sexy. Wonder if this will make blogging seem cool.

Whale Cams

Went to Pimlico last night, early in the evening, and got met at the door by Jenny the nanny, one tiny toddler wobbling up behind her. "She's not here, they've all gone down to the river to see the whale". Jenny and I watched it on Sky and whenever the baby would grizzle for Thomas the Tank engine we'd point at the screen crying "its a whale!" and he'd get distracted for a bit of time.

The gravity of the newscaster's delivery was a delight. This is the kind of news story they should bring to the world's attention. There were police launches and men in the river, splashing at the whale to keep him (always referred to as "him") away from the banks where he might "beach". There were "Harolds" (helicopters) and dozens of whale cams and cut aways to footage from earlier in the day, showing the blue nose spurting water and giving a sense of his enormous size as he came alongside boats in the river.

There were wide maps of the Thames and close up maps of the key bridges he was passing - Battersea and Chelsea and Lambeth - and a bright red headline "whale in Thames - the latest". Experts would give short opinions, including one who said in the gravest "war is declared voice" - "no whale has ever been tracked this far up the Thames before" - as if it indicated some dire environmental disaster.

Then the front door crashed open and it seemed like ten thousand little, three foot high children piled into the front room, shouting about who'd seen him and the crowds on the river and one classmate could see him from her flat on the river (ah, her flat?).

The pizza delivery arrived as my mobile went. Then a mad drive through the rush hour traffic of London to get to a restaurant that had called to say they had my credit cards. My getaway car waited on a double yellow line outside. The manager handed over my bulging wallet saying "we kept waiting for you all day". The cook came out to see who'd been so stupid. Thanks guys. Then another mad drive, zooming through every amber light, to get us to the ice skating rink off Victoria Street.

You could hear the whoops and laughter far off. Mums would crash into the wooden barrier in front of me - "did you get all your cards" and everytime, a face would light up with joy. The rink was surrounded by modern, brightly lit skyscrapers but I felt like I was in a safe small town in Michigan.

Blogosphere trailblazes again

I saw a post about this cheat sheet at Enrevanche a few days ago.

It provides instructions on how to bypass automated systems and get a human being to answer you at 250 American companies' telephone helplines.

Now Yahoo has an article up that talks about the impact "Boston-based blogger Paul English" has made by doing this.

There isn't such a problem here in England, we just get routed to a human in Bangalore. It's always fun to ask them about the weather, especially these days when the contrast is quite considerable.

Operation Iraqi Children

Another - choke, gulp, sob - post from Michael Yon.

"For those who wish to bolster the morale of our troops while enhancing the educational experience of Iraqi kids, please visit the OIC website, and put that good will into action."

He wants to send traffic to the OIC website.

Bit of a jolt reading his email to subscribers - "my blogging days are over" but that's because "we have moved to a different and more agile format: an actual website" - so that's ok then.

Chick TV

Showtime, the US television station has announced they are developing a new tv show:

"The Tudors stars Jonathan Rhys Meyers in this historical drama where he will play a young King Henry VIII. No projected start date yet for this 10-episode project from Reveille and Working Title."

After HBO/Channel 4's Elizabeth with Helen Mirren and Jeremy Irons, I thought tv couldn't get any better.

Michael Collins and Radio Four

Cooking for Michael Collins. The real life story of Pidgie Rigney - spy, gunrunner and cook to Michael Collins, leader of the IRA between 1918 and 1921. It is 1917 and Pidgie is persuaded to join the women's branch of the republican movement, Cumman na Mban.

Thanks Anne!

Tortured Kids in Uganda

Vanity Fair is usually - what - 200 odd pages? An article in the magazine is less than 3% of it's content. I'd be willing to pay for a Christopher Hitchens article, if I could avoid all the other rubbish. I'd be really happy to pay and get some advertisements included. I like the ads in glossy magazines.

Here's his latest, a heart ripping account of the torture of the kids in Uganda. Why does Amnesty International ignore stuff like this? I think it's because America bashing is so much more satisfying for them. What a waste of a good brand name. Kids come first, second and third in my book. That's why I have lost respect for the Amnestys of this world.

Oscars' Declining Audience - Online Poll

"ASSESSING OSCARS' DECLINING AUDIENCE PROBLEM

Be a Part of the News: VOTE IN THE AD AGE WEEKLY ONLINE POLL

BACKGROUND: Audience ratings have not been going well for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences' Oscar awards broadcast in recent years. The ratings dropped 21% in 2004, declined further last year and are expected by many to continue that downward slide despite heroic efforts to reconfigure the show to rebuild the audience.

The Academy's fling with Chris Rock last year did not seem to contribute meaningfully to that audience-boosting goal, and this year it's anyone's guess if Jon Stewart of Comedy Central fame is likely to do any better for ABC's March 5 edition of the show.

Some pundits point to the dismal quality of much of what Hollywood is churning out as the problem; others cite the growing gap between the lifestyle and values of Hollywood moviedom and that of much of the rest of the country.

What do you think?

Can you envision a way in which the Oscars can be changed to make them more relevant and a "must see" TV event?

THIS WEEK'S QUESTION: Is the Oscars award ceremony doomed to have shrinking audiences each year?

VOTE & COMMENT for possible publication in next week's print edition of Advertising Age at http://www.adage.com/poll.cms "

--- I just try to avoid anything that might feature Michael Moore. I'm still ashamed at how well he manipulated my feelings in 'Bowling for Columbine'.

I think fiction masquerading as fact and fraudulent editing is wrong - but you're free to think it's ok!

Pronounced Nor - itch Folks

Here's a charming story, including pronounciation, which does in fact help. Giving directions from the pub is still the way things are done here, sixty odd years on.

Winner of the Bin Liner Look Alike Contest

You know it's a slow news day when old media and/or al jazeera televison trot out a vid purporting to be the Bin Liner himself. Too funny.

But wait! There's more! Now that the tide is turning against al qaeda and the taliban in places that are supposed to support them and hide them from justice - this doppelganger is offering a truce. Have your people call my people.

Update:

Except they didn't even spend the money on a look alike, it's just a sound recording. Have to say, I like the idea that the original source material costs tuppance to make, means they have been hurt financially by that "intelligence failure". Whoever provided that tip deserves the five million.

Dumb and Dumber

Yes, this Lavazza poster is sexist. But more to the point it shows the brand's marketing people are either cheapskates or lazy. Why didn't they do any research to find out poor advertising will make people chose ANY brand of coffee rather than a yukky one.

Russell thinks it deserves buzz word of mouth for it's poor brand image.

I've never gotten over how offended I was by the Yves Saint Laurent perfume poster with Sophie Dahl. I remember it so strongly and have not bought a YSL product from that day to this. Or anything Sophie's advertised, come to that.

There was a Newcastle Brown Ale piss-take of the Dahl poster that was inspired though. Remember? The ginger haired guy with a beard in his painter overalls, all sprawled out, canvas clad legs akimbo. Real men must drink Newcastle Brown ale.

Every little bit helps

So, three major terrorists are dead in Pakistan, from that famous air strike on the border with Afghanistan, you know the one, where there was a "major" failure of intelligence. Some intelligence, some failure - I can't stop channeling Winston Churchill these days - remember "some chicken, some neck"?

One of them had a price of five million on his head.

Unemployment is a problem in Afghanistan. That's one of the reasons violence has increased recently. Terrorists are getting paid after they persuade a suicide bomber to do their dirty work. Can't remember where I read it, but as a good little capitalist, that makes so much sense.

What they really need to do is set up a "crimestoppers" service - where you can phone a number anonymously, give information in exchange for a unique password, then if it turns out you helped zap a bad guy - well, your kids can buy text books and you can all drink clean water that week. Offer a good house rent free for a year - the phone would ring off the hook.

We have no idea how poor they are there. And we have no idea how grateful the women are that the Taliban has been overthrown. But I have an imagination and so do you.

Charity Do

"We'll have lashings of alcohol and then I hope to see some reckless bidding." Loud voice from an older British guy. Chum leans over and whispers in my ear "he's terribly ex-army". I asked "what does that mean?" "Well, he's been to Sandhurst, he's very organised, and he's just a good egg."

The talk started with an advertisement: "hazardous journey...bitter cold...long months...constant danger...safe return doubtful."

"This is the advertisement Ernest Shakleton used, I put it in the paper and got an enormous response."

Guy gets up to do his presentation and although he sounded like Prince Charles, he wasn't a wuss like Prince Charles is. "Our next trip is to the four North Poles, nothing has been done like this in a hundred years. There will be 400 miles of arctic travel. It's a great British endeavour. We will be measuring the ice for NASA, we will be followed comprehensively by the BBC and there will be daily reports."

Me: "Will anyone be blogging?"

"I'm sorry, I don't know what blogging is."

Notes:

There are four north poles - Geographic or "True North", Magnetic - "a moving pole", Geomagnetic - "the most important, on top of Canada at the moment" and the Arctic pole.

"We will be going to the real one, on the edge of the darling peninsula." Darling is underlined in my notes.

"Negative 49 most days."

"People always ask - how do you poo in the Artic, I always say 'very quick'."

"The sun doesn't go down, it circles round you."

"You do see polar bears. They actively hunt man. If it comes to it, if you can't get rid of it with noise, flares or pepper spray, we had a high velocity rifle."

www.ice-warrior.com

Lots of money was raised. Very charming, very British, including an auction for fortnights in holiday homes around the world and for various framed pictures including "a watercolour of the Cotswolds."

Curiosity or Appetite?

A dear colleague was talking about his lack of appetite these days. Every time I suggested something (chocolate? Irish soda bread? wine? big glasses of milk?) he explained why those foods were not good for nutrition according to the experts he'd consulted.

That became my philosophical theme for the day. What is the difference between curiosity and appetite? Curiosity is certainly about mental processes but appetite can be too, just a more voracious form. So could you talk about voracious curiosity? Yes but can you be contemplative about your appetites? There's something thrusting about the word appetite, something more laid back about curiosity. And so the day passed beautifully.

Terrorism or Stupidity

My vote's on stupidity. You can't achieve any kind of skulduggery this close to the Israeli embassy in London. But someone seems to have tried...

Thanks Nat! And - not afraid!

What is a blogger?

"A blogger's just a writer with a cooler name".

All the Leaves are Brown

Drudge has a report on a Russian politician's misogynist rant. Poor thing.

Compare and contrast with this US Marine who understands war, irony and kissing.

Market Research in Afghanistan

This poll, published yesterday on the World Public Opinion site rings true:

A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of the Afghan public finds:

81% of Afghans think Al Qaeda "is having a negative influence in the world"

88% "said they had an unfavourable view of the Taliban" (sometimes I wonder if different people don't have different labels for things, you know, Taliban/Al Qaeda/terrorists could all mean the same thing, just saying)

82% "said that overthrowing the Taliban government was a good thing for Afghanistan" (wish I could see the details for those who thought it was a bad idea!)

93% "gave the United Nations favorable ratings"

79% rated "International agencies providing aid for reconstruction" as effective

82% said the ISAF force of Nato troops providing peacekeeping and reconstruction is effective

83% of Afghans said Afghanistan is "heading in the right direction"

91% called the central Afghan government "very or somewhat effective" - the report's writer makes a valid point: "it may be that Afghans were expressing their positive attitudes about the government, more than assessing its performance."

When 80% or higher agree with a statement - that's a good, clear indication that the majority of people think like that.

66% "believe the government is allowing the Taliban to operate in Pakistan" - I would like to see the figures for the part of Afghanistan that borders Pakistan.

Interestingly:

21% rated the security situation in their area as excellent
49% rated the security in their area as good - I'd like to see these figures broken out by men and women - also, these are lower than the other figures and indicates that security on a local level is still a concern.

82% think "seats reserved in Parliament for women respresentatives" is a good idea - 77% of men think this, the figure for women is not given but it will be higher than 82%

I found this market reserch through a post at IraqNow.

There are so many rubbish polls reported in 'old media'. The MSM has no desire to report things that don't fit into their delusional agenda. Reading between the lines of this, shows that the first part of the war has been a success, although "local security" still requires improvement, so it's unlikely this research will be picked up and widely reported.

Afghanistan isn't a sexy theatre of operations.

This is what Thunder 6 at 365 and a wake up says in an interview posted at Gun Nutt - about old media in Iraq - but it is true for Afghanistan as well:

"Thunder6: Its pretty apparent to the troops on the ground that the MSM has dropped the ball. There are a few exceptions, but for the most part the MSM seems to have a difficult time grasping the ground truth. I’m not sure if this is indicative of a downward spiral in modern journalism or whether it is grounded in some gut level revulsion of anything that can’t be collapsed into a sound bite. I’ve met several superb journalists that wrote moving stories about our missions, but in the end the stories went unpublished. Unless it is short, sexy, or violent the MSM doesn’t appear interested."

And if a journalist gets kidnapped, the MSM has figured out a way to keep that fact from being reported, giving more time to various groups to work out a way to pay a big ransom and get the reporter back.

In the old days of the Irish Civil War (1922-23) the anti democracy forces would raid banks. The new way of making money appears to be kidnapping. If you kidnap the right person, there certainly is money in it. Whoever captured Brit journalist Phil Sands didn't move quickly enough though, he was rescued by American forces on routine maneuvers before all the negotiations had ceased. And lucky for him, it wasn't reported on, or maybe that's old media's new way of working - kidnap a journalist, news blackout for ages, so the terrorists don't get media attention which adds to the pressure. Ya think?

Russell's Third Assignment

Russell's Account Planning School on the Web with a twist - the students are putting their answers on the web.

Palace Garden Mews

The Lebanese embassy is just around the corner. There's no way of knowing how many times I've passed it, thousands? It's all embassies around here and what are they doing inside? There are occasional jokes made about the Israeli embassy at the other end of the road, but you know what? You don't mess with them, scary doesn't begin to cover it.

January now. May 2006 is my anniversary, one year since I gave a fig for the middle east. Except even in polite company I don't really say fig, well come on.

The harrowing tales I've been told. My soul is scarred forever. So should yours be too. I'm gearing up for giving you my version, what I've learned.

The most important thing to remember and be thankful for - you are not in harm's way and neither is your family. We have no idea the horror they're living through in these benighted places. That's why we should support the coalition troops. They are living it and seeing it. There are not many real time blogs from some of these war torn, devastated places. Blogs are a new phenomenon and haven't quite caught up. But they will.

What is it? 12:30? And bomb noises go off but because it doesn't have the deep visceral depth that a real bomb has, one passes it off, just traffic, just someone's old car. Please don't let those sirens get any closer.

I totally blame Michael Yon. I lived in a happy, naive, upmarket bubble until his heartbreaking photography and reality check blog crashed into my world. I guess I should be grateful.

Bones - Pilot Episode

Pilot episodes always have fantastic outdoor scenes and this was no exception. Corny lines and tv cliches in abundance but some really touching moments too. I love David Boreanaz's face and he can make me believe he's the character for big chunks of time. Plus, when he was looking at the murder victim's family momentos he cried, and he's great at crying. The heroine is interesting too and my contacts tell me she grows on you. I'm looking forward to this series and that hasn't happened in a long, long time.

Poor old Sky though. The trailers for 'Over There' make it look almost as bad as it actually is.

Cultural Nuances

"England and America are two countries separated by the same language." George Bernard Shaw.

Part of the fun of living in a foreign location is learning about the culture. It's especially challenging when you both speak English. There are as many ways to speak English as there are stars in the sky.

Yesterday a colleague was trying to illustrate a story using the characters in Thunderbirds. We got as far as 'Brains' and 'Lady Penelope'. I'm still not sure what the point was but we had a great laugh.

Another colleague was laughing at something in the Times.

"Ever since Sir Menzies Campbell became acting leader of the Liberal Democrats...around Westminster his new nickname was Ming the Merciless...for PMQs Sir Merciless had on smart black loafers...His first question on public services was demolished by Tony Blair...Ming gulped a glass of water."

" "Vodka!" shouted a Labour MP. It was a post-Kennedy moment, for no glass of anything has been allowed near that front bench in years."

"Ming jumped up again. "Perhaps the Prime Minister would like to explain," he huffed, "why it is that one in five schools does not have a permanent head teacher?" "

"What about a permanent leader?!" cried a Labour MP."

The Chamber erupted...finally Mr. Blair cried: "As he knows, it can be difficult to find the head of an organisation when the post is vacant, particularly if it is a failing organisation!"

"...Simon Hughes...also wants to be leader...by happenstance, he had been chosen to ask a question and we knew it would not be short, for his never are. The moment he stood up MPs shouted "Too long" and "that's enough". As he droned on, someone shouted "next", then "next leader!"

------

"No political leader is going anywhere with a nickname like Ming."

"Why?"

"I'm not going to explain it to you."

John Webster has died

This is really sad news. I remember him as a party animal but of course the London advertising world will remember him as a famous creative director from the golden days of television advertising at BMP.

Una, remember that time he picked us up in his Bentley and we went for fish and chips? The front seat was wide enough to fit us both. Weird what you remember.

John Griffiths has a nice write up here.

Segway

Mark Steyn's article "It's the Demography, Stupid" tries very hard to make women who can control their fertility the villain of the piece. But it didn't convince me.

In his second paragraph, he humorously writes: "Go forth and multiply, because if you don't you won't be able to afford all those secondary-impulse issues, like cradle-to-grave welfare."

What, as opposed to making people understand that they need to be more responsible?

The idea of the National Health system in England always seemed illogical to me. I pay a few pounds a week and that provides me with high quality medical attention? Don't make me laugh. I haven't met a National Health doctor who was a smart as me or knew as much as me, but then I've never had a critical illness. Nor have I had a baby. If the chips were down I'd fly home. I've seen enough of the National Health service to know - you get what you pay for.

Same with everything else. People on the dole living a fabulous, rewarding life? I don't see it. I've known women to take a year off to have a baby, and their company pays for their leave. Then when people say this stops employers from considering hiring women of child bearing years I think, well, that makes sense. There is a certain logic to life you know.

Lavish social welfare will blow up in people's faces very naturally, companies won't be able to sustain it and it will end. I'm not looking forward to the time it happens but I'm hoping, if the worst comes, that my family will help me out. There are so few of us and the adults have such great jobs. That's the secret. Ask anybody in the third world. If you're smart and you're educated you can pretty much sort yourself out, as long as you don't have a big family that needs to be provided for.

That's why birth rates are declining. The second women could control their fertility they went for it like gangbusters. The double whammy of the pill and safe abortion means you don't have to live with the consequences of being silly one night. I believe God gave women 280 days between act and creation for a reason. And that reason is to assess and decide whether the circumstances will allow for one more person in the world that completely relies on you.

I have certainly had the opportunity to make babies since I reached puberty. I've heard some charming seduction lines too, all very much appreciated. No one's ever said to me though, "go on, make me a baby, I'll care for it from the moment of birth, I'll nurture and cherish, and I've got tons of money in the bank to cover all the expenses up to and including a fabulous college on the East Coast, you won't have to do a thing if you don't want to..." Now that would be something to hear!

I don't think it's wrong for America to have administered the Marshall Plan in Europe after the second world war. It was very wise and very kind. So too is the reconstruction going on in Iraq and Afghanistan. They'll probably be as resentful about it as the Europeans are. They're the kids and the donor nations of the world are the parents. What little kid comprehends how much their parents do for them? I didn't.

"In essence, the lavish levels of public health care on the Continent are subsidized by the American taxpayer." It will all end soon, that's clear.

He goes on to talk about how the Muslins will take over Europe but Sharia law and their lack of financial acumen will stop that from truly happening. All the most backward societies have poor treatment of women as standard operating procedure. And they're still backward!

When these gals get ahold of the contraceptive shot, I don't believe for a moment that they won't be meeting in secret and injecting each other - women help each other out when they can. They all want to be educated - they'll figure out that no babies gives them more time, and then we'lll see where Mark's demographic argument ends up.

Read the whole thing he wrote for the Wall Street Journal here.

Retraction, Refraction

If you had read in the paper that I was a retired professional cheerleader but now I'm a secret agent with an agenda - would you trust that paper for any facts about me, or anyone else for that matter? (I wish!)

Well, how is that different to what the Washington Post had done with regard to Bill Roggio? Not a fact right about his circumstances and all of them easily checked. What are people doing at newspapers these days? (besides reading blogs, hi, glad you dropped by!) No really. Isn't fact checking a part of the job description?

I talked about it all morning, I'm typing about it right now. Old media is for old people and no one wants to target them for marketing purposes these days.

Here's Bill's response to misrepresentation and rubbish written about him.

And here's an article about their two week later "correction". So that's your laugh for the day - that's your lot!

Information Revolution with milk no sugar

Saw this at enrevanche, read the whole thing here.

"Spirit of America Releases Anonymous Blogging Guides in English, Arabic, Chinese and Persian."

"I usually discard the press releases I occasionally receive... but I'm running this one in full, unedited. It's kind of important.Spirit of America has launched the BlogSafer wiki, available at http://www.blogsafer.org/. BlogSafer contains a series of guides on how to blog under difficult conditions in countries that discourage free speech."

Every bit of the post is good:

"The guides are a synthesis of all currently available information on the subject of anonymization. They have been edited for non-technical readers, translated into the languages of the target areas and posted on the wiki. Bloggers can use the wiki format to expand, edit and change the current guides to reflect a closer knowledge of the changing situation in their countries. Others may use the guides, and the other resources provided, to translate the guides into other languages or create new guides specific to their countries’ situations."

One to contribute to, definitely:

"Spirit of America is a 501c3 nonprofit supported solely through private-sector contributions. We do not receive funding from the government or military. 100% of your tax-deductible donation is used for the purpose you choose. For more information and to support Spirit of America and this and other projects, visit the web site at www.spiritofamerica.net."

Say what?

Norm's posted a link to a Jonathan Freedland article, headed "What if they are all wrong - and Bush turns out to be one of the great American presidents?" read the whole thing here.

He goes on to list a lot of achievements. What about Afghanistan though? I remember that October Sunday, a few short weeks after September 11th. I was having a civilised tea in the big front room of the Shelbourne when Shay's mobile went. He finished the call and said "we'll never forget where we were when they started bombing."

We all gulped a bit. Later, neither one of us hotshot Americans could figure out how to turn on the rental car's radio. We drove round and round the car park at Heathrow at one o'clock at night until we found a guy to show us. The newscaster's words boomed out like the voice of doom.

January TV Shows

January is when we get the US television shows that started in the fall. I haven't seen 'Bones' but a few friends have said it's great. I have seen 'Over There' and it was total rubbish. The station it was on tried all sorts of ways to increase the audience figures, including showing it three times the same night during primetime. Nothing helped. The finale had appalling viewership and it was not picked up for a second season - quelle surprise.

Wiretapping in London

Have you ever thought you were being listened to while on the telephone? You know the weird clicks and the spacey echo you get sometimes and you think - what could I possibly have said to make anyone want to listen in?

Let me reassure you right now. Listening back to tape recordings of focus groups is dull beyond belief, and I get paid to do that. I cannot imagine how boring it must be to listen in, on the off-chance, to most of the people in my neighbourhood - and we're a pretty eclectic bunch.

Christiane Amanpour lives a few yards away. You always know something's up when there's a van outside her place. If someone was wiretapping her, or you or me, they'll have a pretty good reason as there's no more boring job in the world, not at all.

So I find it all hard to believe but you can read more here if you want to.

Buffy for the Millennium?

Business News

Analysis of the year just gone is filled with commentary on the decreasing audiences for broadcast television and falling newspaper circulations.

"U.S. broadcast networks’ prime-time ratings fell to a historic low in the 2004-05 season, when just 32.4% of TV households tuned in, down from 54.6% in 1980-81, according to data from Nielsen Media Research. Networks have other reasons to worry: DVRs make it easier to zap ads, and consumers, particularly younger people, often surf the Net while the TV drones on in the background."

Note: it's not just young people who have the tv on all the time, every household I go in to does.

"Newspapers, meanwhile, face a serious challenge in connecting with the next generation. Weekday paid circulation for 786 U.S. papers dropped by 1.2 million -- a 2.6% decline -- in the six months ended Sept. 30, 2005, vs. a year earlier, according to an analysis of Audit Bureau of Circulations data by the Newspaper Association of America."

Note: circulation dropping means not connecting with "the next generation" - ? I hope so. They don't need to waste their time reading the biased, agenda driven 'old media' newspapers I keep bumping into.

So why make this mistake:

Ad Age.com - MediaWorks News - "Is your googlephobia justified?" read the whole thing here.

"And newspapers, while struggling for growth, still are highly profitable; No. 1 publisher Gannett over the last four quarters had an operating margin of about 28%, not too far behind Google’s 33%."

The problem with calling Gannett a "profitable publisher" is the fact that Gannett's profile includes:

"NEWSPAPERS: Gannett is the USA's largest newspaper group in terms of circulation. The company's 99 daily newspapers in the USA have a combined daily paid circulation of 7.6 million. They include USA TODAY, the nation's largest-selling daily newspaper, with a circulation of approximately 2.3 million.
BROADCASTING:The company owns and operates 21 television stations covering 17.9 percent of the USA.
ON THE INTERNET: Gannett has more than 130 web sites...and 80 sites in the United Kingdom.
OTHER VENTURES: Other company operations include Gannett News Service; Clipper, a direct-mail advertising magazine company; Captivate, a network that delivers programming and advertising to television screens in elevators in premier office towers in North America; Gannett Retail Advertising Group; Gannett New Business and Product Development; Gannett Direct Marketing Services; Gannett Offset, a commercial printing operation; Gannett Media Technologies International; and Telematch, a database marketing company."

Read the Gannett company profile information here.

Until the large company groups wake up and realise that media needs to be cleaner and more objective than it is now, audience figures and circulation will continue to fall.

If you think internet exposure of fraudulent news stories ( and no corrections by the Washington Post yet! tsk, tsk ) doesn't have a knock on effect on newspaper circulation then I know someone who still holds some stock in the New York Times that they'd be willing to sell you.

Here's a question

Walking up Haymarket at eight, tired but happy after an early dinner with friends including my Texas chum. I always ask her to repeat the story about shooting the intruder in the shoulder with her 38. Her latest story's great. At Madame Tussaud's, an actor jumped her and held a knife to her throat.

"I reached for my gun before I realised it was an act."
"You keep it to your side?"
"No, tucked in the back. Not when I'm here of course."

She's not five feet high. Tiny, cute little girl. But you don't mess with her.

Mobile goes. "Quick one?", "Ok, the bar of Waterstones". Not 100 yards away but she still got there before me. I can't walk quickly through a bookstore.

The shining lights of London, picture perfect with parliament and the abbey lit up just so. A glass of Clicquot and over two weeks to catch up on, so no end of things to discuss. How did we get on the subject? It's something most women I know are talking about these days.

"Have you read the Koran?"
"No"
"I have, I'll lend it to you."
"I have enough to read these days. Too much to read. Plus I don't want to read it."
"It's not very long."
"I only just read the bible at Christmas."
"You should read it. What it says about women is incredible."
"Go on then."
"Women are like orphans, they can't take care of themselves and they're unimportant anyway."
"Well that's wrong."
"Even nice, intelligent guys here in London believe that. They won't change their mind."

So the question is: if someone believes something and it's untrue, what do you do to help them realise they've got things wrong.

What do you do?

I've got a friend from Texas I'd like these guys to meet.

Hugh Hewitt had an interesting chat with Father Joseph Fessio this past Thursday on the same subject:

"Well, the thesis that was proposed by this scholar was that Islam can enter into the modern world if the Koran is reinterpreted by taking the specific legislation, and going back to the principles, and then adapting it to our times, especially with the dignity that we ascribe to women, which has come through Christianity, of course."

"And immediately, the Holy Father, in his beautiful calm but clear way, said well, there's a fundamental problem with that, because he said in the Islamic tradition, God has given His word to Mohammed, but it's an eternal word. It's not Mohammed's word. It's there for eternity the way it is."

"There's no possibility of adapting it or interpreting it, whereas in Christianity, and Judaism, the dynamism's completely different, that God has worked through His creatures. And so, it is not just the word of God, it's the word of Isaiah, not just the word of God, but the word of Mark."

"He's used His human creatures, and inspired them to speak His word to the world, and therefore by establishing a Church in which he gives authority to His followers to carry on the tradition and interpret it, there's an inner logic to the Christian Bible, which permits it and requires it to be adapted and applied to new situations."

"I was...I mean, Hugh, I wish I could say it as clearly and as beautifully as he did, but that's why he's Pope and I'm not, okay? That's one of the reasons. One of others, but his seeing that distinction when the Koran, which is seen as something dropped out of Heaven, which cannot be adapted or applied, even, and the Bible, which is a word of God that comes through a human community, it was stunning."

Read the whole thing here.

Almost a quarter of a million dollars

Tonight in the Evening Standard, tucked away on page 25:

"Riddle of £121,000 left by the Aldgate Tube bomber"

"One of the 7 July suicide bombers left £121,000 - despite only working in a chip shop."

"Security chiefs have no idea how Shehwad Tanwierd, 22, amassed such a sum...Toowierd worked part time at his family's fish and chip shop in the run-down Leeds suburb of Beeston."

Here's the same story in the Sun with a photo of the chip shop where he worked.

Liz, you are so right

Best blonde joke ever.

We're one but we're not the same

Growing up I had glamorous cousins in DC and Philly. They wore make up and perfume and had stacks of glossy magazines in their rooms. One magazine caught my imagination - 17 - fancy being 17! Old enough to drive, date, go to college - a fantasy age.

Russell Bailey, planning guru, has his latest Account Planning assignment up - think of ways to talk to the over 50s.

It's an interesting idea, particularly during these days of upheaval in media consumption. My take is - how talk to them, sure, but the medium you use will also play a role.

Last year I stopped buying Vanity Fair. It's no longer a venue for beautiful photos and compelling articles, just boring biased bull****. At the same time my sister stopped too. Mom gets a notice every week reminding her to "renew her subscription", says they've been coming for months.

I always say the first interview you do in research is with yourself.

How would I like it if I was asked really sensitive questions in a brightly lit laboratory with a wall made of mirrors. You know what, you would not get the truth out of me. All market researchers know this. You don't put a coin in slot and out pops a consumer attitude.

This is how I work --- ramble and muse and then get down to business.

"Assignment 3 - Five ways to talk to the over-50s"

"...answer the five questions below, in less than 30 words per answer. I don't want any pictures, or any fancy fonts, in fact I don't want any attachments, just put your answers in an email."

To read the full instructions click here.

I'm going to develop my answers "by blog".

"1. A leading retailer wants to create an equivalent of The Gap aimed at the over 60s. What should the key communications idea for that store be?"

Store name: 29. Old style Gap clothes - when they were quality staples - cotton and velvet tees, cashmere/silk/cotton sweaters, jeans, skirts, linen shifts etc. All material is solid colour, no prints! (no flocked wall paper!) - have clothes in every "staple" colour. One tiny corner for cutting edge high fashion - a sophisticated, ironic touch and pr opportunity.

Main communication: "High fashion is so last week". (5 words)

"2. A leading car brand wants to create a loyalty programme that ensures their over 50s customers come back and use authorised dealerships for their service and maintenance. They want to use direct mail to do it. What should the main idea for that be?"

Car buyers have a tendency to be brand loyal. Lifestage changes can prompt brand switching when different models are considered. Location of dealership effects brand choice. Servicing will have to do with habit. Those who don't normally use dealerships for servicing need a reason to break their habit. (Hey I'm from Detroit, we know these things.)

Forget "classic" direct mail - the older you get the more rubbish you get in the mail. Tons of it is thrown out without a glance.

Here is an opportunity to stand out, maybe get some pr on the five o'clock news, develo