A true sense of proportion must rule

A Winston Churchill quote seems appropriate this morning. Reading nonsensical research findings is always annoying. Compound that with the implied gravitas supplied by a broadsheet newspaper though and we're bordering on dangerous irresponsibility.

I see why the Telegraph's circulation is stagnant while the London Times's increased by 6% in the last month.

If you believe this statistic of the day: "millions of Iraqis believe suicide attacks again British troops are justified" - then look away now because I'm going to give a short lecture on statistical illiteracy.

First, just think about the cost of conducting those interviews, must have been enormous, and interviewing millions of respondents can take a lot of time, so the fieldwork dates for this research project would have been quite long.

Then you have to take into account the safety issues for the interviewers and the interviewees, all of them, think about it. I know little about Iraq but it sounds quite backward in some areas (plowing barefoot with ancient plows and oxen anyone?) and according to the Women's Liberation meeting earlier this week, all Islamic women are brainwashed (like I believe that)...so figuring out who's brainwashed and who's thinking for herself has got to add caveats to the collection methods.

Ha ha, just kidding! Of course whoever did this research didn't conduct millions of interviews, what are you crazy? Instead, a "secret military poll" commissioned by "senior officers" at the "Ministry of Defence" has been conducted and the results are what we can expect from non-experts who are trying to save a bit of money for their department, well a lot of money actually.

This is from "More Damned Lies and Statistics, How Numbers Confuse Public Issues" by Joel Best:

"Absolutely every study-has limitations and flaws in its methods that make it a target for legitimate criticism....The results of a lone study, particularly if the research raises serious methodological concerns, should not, in most scientists' view, be treated as authoritative." p 151

"The press prefers reporting exactly those research results that lack strong substantiation. A single study with a disturbing finding makes good news and the media coverage is likely to downplay or even ignore the research's methodological limitations. As a consequence, we must approach press reports of research results with caution." p.152

There are no research companies operating in Iraq. I have heard how research is conducted in other parts of the Middle East. Unsurprisingly this is not an area of the world where good recruitment or strict codes of practice are a high priority. Whoever conducted this research knows it's a piece of rubbish, from initial notion to the last powerpoint chart.

But I would like to end by tarring the British Conservative party member Andrew Robathan who is quoted in the Telegraph and appears to be lending some kind of credence to these ludicrous research findings. The Tories are in such a mess. With nitwits like this is it any wonder?

Not to Harry of Harry's Place, my favourite blog these days. He's back, not as a blogger but just to make a few points in an article yesterday, written in his clean, intelligent, wry way. There are some wonderful bits, such as:

"I have to confess...to a sneaking hope that he (Ken Clarke) would have emerged, against the odds, triumphant. The prospect of the Tory party running on a "No War for Oil - Troops out now" platform was too delicious not to be at least partly tempted by."

Read every wonderful word of what he has to say here.

What, you didn't click on the link? Let me give you a few tastes here:

"But whether or not the 'main motivation' for the Americans was the introduction of democracy to Iraq, there can be no doubt after the second mass display of voting, that the Iraqi people have shown their motivation is in ensuring the legacy of the war is a free Iraq. Surely, whatever our view of the decision to invade Iraq, we can all agree that (it) is right to do all we can to help them reach that goal?"

"The screamingly obvious solution to the 'problem' is for every pub to have spaces put aside for smokers and non-smokers - separate and ventilate, don't legislate."

Plus, as ever, the comments are hilarious, one example:

"Harry, if your non-return to blogging prompts another knuckle-gratingly unfunny "satirical" piece by "Norman Johnson" in the Guardian then the blood will be on your hands."

Michael Yon's on the radio tonight, 2 am GMT, WRKO, pundit review, the link is here. I'll listen to it over the internet. He's very straight and serious but does crack a few jokes. One time he started laughing to himself after making a joke about throwing "a rock not Ear-rack", I don't know what was amusing him but the different pronunciations are interesting.

Brits say "uuuRock" (drop your jaw for the rock part), Michael says "Earrr-Rahwck", now that I'm sensitive to it I do listen to all the different ways of saying it. And yes this is a goofy way to end this post.